Recruitment Blog: HR Trends, Al Insights & Tips | RippleHire

The Sunday Night Surprise: Anatomy of an Offer Drop

Written by Sandra Rachel Oommen | Feb 3, 2026 8:11:05 AM

It is 9:00 PM on a Sunday.

You are relaxing. You are mentally preparing for the week ahead. You feel good because you have three critical hires joining tomorrow morning. The laptops are configured. The welcome kits are on the desks. The hiring managers are ready.

Then, your phone buzzes.

It is a WhatsApp message from the candidate. Or maybe a short, polite email.

"Hi, I am so sorry to do this at the last minute. Due to unforeseen personal circumstances, I will not be joining tomorrow. I have decided to stay with my current organization. Best of luck."

Your stomach drops.

You don't just feel anger. You feel panic. You have to call the Hiring Manager. You have to tell them that the search they thought was "closed" three months ago is now open again.

We call this "The Sunday Night Surprise."

If you are a TA Head, you know this pain intimately. You have likely lost sleep over it.

But here is the hard truth. This isn't just bad luck. And it isn't just "unprofessional candidates."

It is a structural flaw in how we handle the most dangerous time in recruitment: The Notice Period.

The Black Hole of the 90-Day Notice

In many regions, especially in tech and professional services, notice periods have stretched to 60 or 90 days.

That is a quarter of a year.

Think about what happens in your life in three months. You might move houses. You might change your diet. You might binge-watch five new TV shows.

A lot changes in 90 days.

Yet, many recruitment teams treat this period as a "waiting room."

They get the offer signed on Day 1. They send a welcome email. Then they go silent until Day 85.

To the recruiter, the status is "Hired." To the candidate, the status is "Anxious."

During this silence, the candidate is not just sitting still. They are in a vulnerable psychological state.

The Psychology of the "Ghost"

Why does a candidate accept an offer and then back out?

To fix the problem, you have to understand the psychology of the person on the other side. They are usually dealing with three powerful forces.

1. Buyer’s Remorse

The excitement of the offer lasts about 48 hours. After that, fear sets in. "Did I make a mistake?" "Is the new culture actually toxic?" "What if I fail probation?"

When you go silent, their brain fills the void with worst-case scenarios.

2. The "Devil You Know" (The Counteroffer Offer)

While you are silent, their current employer is active. Every day they go into their current office, their boss is trying to keep them. They are getting taken out to lunch. They are being promised a promotion in six months. They are being reminded of their work friends.

The current job is comfortable. Your job is an unknown risk. When the pressure gets high, comfort usually wins.

3. The Market never sleeps

Just because they signed your offer doesn't mean they deleted LinkedIn. In fact, having an offer makes them more attractive to other recruiters. They are now a "vetted" commodity. Other companies will say: "Oh, you have an offer of X? We will beat it by 10% if you join us instead."

If you aren't fighting for their attention, someone else is stealing it.

The Warning Signs You Missed

The "Sunday Night Surprise" rarely happens out of nowhere. There were signals.

We usually miss them because we are too focused on filling the next role. We forget to nurture the one we just filled.

Look back at your last three drops. You will probably see these patterns:

  • The "Delayed Response": They used to reply to texts in 10 minutes. Suddenly, it takes 2 days.
  • The "Document Drag": They take weeks to upload simple documents like pay slips or ID proofs.
  • The "busy" excuse: They are too busy to attend the casual Friday meetup you invited them to.

These are not administrative delays. These are hesitation signals.

Fixing the Leak: From "Waiting" to "Pre-boarding"

You cannot shorten the 90-day notice period. But you can change what happens during it.

You need to shift from "Post-Offer" to "Pre-Boarding."

You need to occupy their mindshare so heavily that no other competitor can get in.

Here is how you do it without overwhelming your recruiters.

1. Gamify the Process

Asking for documents is boring. It feels like bureaucracy. Turn it into a journey. Use a platform that visually shows them their progress. "You are 20% of the way to Day 1! Watch this video from your CEO to unlock the next step." Make them feel like they are already inside the company, even if they haven't started.

2. The "Buddy" System (Human Connection)

Recruiters are busy. They can't call every candidate every week. Assign a "buddy" from the team they are joining. A simple 15-minute coffee chat (virtual or physical) once a month changes everything. It builds a social obligation. It is easy to ghost a recruiter. It is much harder to ghost a future teammate you just had coffee with.

3. Automate the Touchpoints

You cannot rely on sticky notes to remember to check in. Set up an automated cadence.

  • Day 10: Send a "Welcome to the Tribe" swag kit. (Physical items create emotional debt).
  • Day 30: Send a "Meet the Team" video.
  • Day 60: Send a newsletter about recent company wins.
  • Day 80: Send the laptop and logistics info.
  •  

New Metric: Joining Ratio

Finally, stop measuring "Offers Released."

It is a vanity metric. It means nothing if nobody shows up.

Start measuring Joining Ratio. (Joinees / Offers Accepted) * 100.

If your Joining Ratio is 60%, your recruitment engine is leaking oil. You are doing 100% of the work for 60% of the result.

Hold your team accountable for the Joining Ratio, not just the offers. This forces them to care about the 90-day period.

Conclusion

The candidate isn't yours when they sign the offer. They aren't yours when they send the documents. They are yours when they walk through the door and log in.

The "Sunday Night Surprise" is a symptom of neglect. It happens when we treat candidates as "files" instead of humans making a massive life decision.

You have to win their trust repeatedly, every single week of that notice period.

If you don't, you will keep waking up to that dreaded Sunday night text. And by then, it is already too late.

Stop the ghosts before they vanish. [CTA Button: Get the Guide to Boosting Your Joining Ratio]

FAQs

What is a typical offer drop rate in the industry?

It varies by sector, but in high-demand industries like Tech and Professional Services, drop rates often range between 20% to 35%. Anything above 20% signals a need for better pre-boarding engagement.

Why do candidates accept offers and then back out?

The main reasons are counteroffers from their current employer, better offers from competitors, or simply "cold feet" (fear of change). The long notice period gives these factors time to fester.

Can we legally enforce an accepted offer letter?

In most jurisdictions, employment is "at-will" or similar, meaning you cannot force someone to join even if they signed. Legal action is rare and usually bad for your employer brand. The solution is persuasion, not litigation.

How often should a recruiter contact a candidate during a 3-month notice period?

Ideally, there should be a touchpoint every 2 weeks. This doesn't always have to be a call. It can be an email, a newsletter, a text, or an invitation to an event.

What is "Pre-boarding"?

Pre-boarding is the phase between offer acceptance and the start date. It involves administrative tasks (docs) but more importantly, cultural engagement to keep the candidate excited and committed.

How do I spot a candidate who is about to ghost?

Look for changes in communication speed. If they stop replying quickly, delay document submissions, or seem vague about their start date logistics, they are likely considering other options.

Does sending swag (merchandise) actually help?

Yes. Physical items like a t-shirt, mug, or notebook create a tangible connection to your brand. It makes the new job feel "real" and creates a small psychological sense of obligation or belonging.

How can RippleHire help reduce offer drops?

RippleHire offers tools to automate candidate engagement during the notice period. It creates a branded, gamified experience that keeps candidates warm without adding manual workload to your recruiters.